Michael Walters' Blog

‘Houston…the Eagle has landed’.  I enjoyed recently the celebration of the Lunar landing.  Let’s change the wording to fit our times: “Buyers, we’ve landed, and are now lifting off”. 

Home values in San Jose, Morgan Hill, Gilroy, Hollister and San Juan Bautista “have landed” at the bottom of their value slide and are beginning to “lift off” that bottom.  We are not going to see these prices again for a very, very long time, if ever again. 

Here’s the affect of waiting to buy a home: A home listed today for $350,000 and goes up 5.0% in value will then be worth $367,500.  A buyer who waited and then buys this home will need $985 MORE CASH and $268/mth MORE INCOME to qualify for this same home. 

If the  interest rate is at 6.0% (vs. the 5.0% used above) when the buyer decides to purchase this increased-value-home, their income will need to be $843/mth. HIGHER to qualify!

Some prospective home buyers may be calling out: “Houston, we’ve got a problem“.  The erosion of their purchasing power may make them permanent renters. 

My crystal ball recommends that those who want to buy a home climb on board NOW while they can.  What does yours forcast?

In a Hollister listing interview the inevitable question came up and I gave the answer I have heard myself offer more and more lately. 

     The question: “How much of a commission do you charge”? 

     The answer: “If your competing homes for sale are offering 2.5 or 3.0% to the selling office you should offer at least 3.0%.  The first sale you need to make is the Selling Agent’s interest in showing your home.  You want to do everything possible to encourage those agents to enthusiastically promote your home.  If you instruct me to collect a lower commission, half of which goes to the Selling Agent, they will see that lower commission when searching for homes to show their buyers.  We want to ENCOURAGE them to show your home.  A lower commission being offered by you while competing homes are offering more will be discouraging to them.

     “The home will sell itself – once the agent and their prospective buyers actually tour your home.  We just need to do all we can to make your home appealing to the prospective buyers AND their agent”.

This answer seems to resonate as a new thought with most sellers and typically the issue is settled.  Now!  If we could just find a buyer for this nice, upper-end home!  Anyone want a producing vineyard and nice home in the Spring Grove Area of Hollister?

When Ronald Reagan became president, Disco was hot, and home loan rates reached 19%!  Out of necessity agents became creative with financing for the few real estate sales being done.  One such tool was a “Wrap Around” or “Wrap”.  More home  sales closed because of  the development of “creative financing”; which typically turned out to be a Wrap.

Today, we again find ourselves in need of creative financing.  Up-scale homes, requiring ’jumbo loans’ are not experiencing the same resurgence as the lower cost, “conforming” group of homes.  In fact, homes with prices over $700,000 are selling at a much slower pace, if they sell at all.  Their prices are still falling while lower priced, ‘tract’ homes are rebounding.   It’s all about the financing or, lack of it.

Lenders are requiring at least 20% down from the buyer on prices above $463,300.  With the ‘Jumbo’ limit of $729,750 and minimum of 20% down many buyers simply don’t have enough cash.  Previously helpful, second loans offered by sellers must be over and above the minimum 20% cash from the buyer. ”Willing sellers and qualified buyers” (without 20%+ cash) for jumbo sales are being held at bay do to a significantly tightened lending atmosphere.

Even if an upper-end home finds a buyer with a large down payment good luck in the home appraising.  Lender’s are now being required to accept only those appraisals with 2 comparable sales within the last 90 days.  So, with fewer comparable sales, and dropping prices many higher priced home sales don’t close due to very low appraised values.

However, the “Wrap” is making a come back (more properly called an “All Inclusive Deed of Trust” or A.I.D.T.).  A willing and capable buyer can pay the seller’s price and avoid the lender limits and appraisal constrictions.  Additionally, since there are no lender fees the money normally spent on closing costs can be added to the down payment.

In the last 30 days I proposed 4 AIDTs for stagnant Hollister and San Juan Bautista up-scale homes.  Morgan Hill and Gilroy ‘Jumbo’ homes could also benefit form an AIDT sale.

When one of these AIDT sales records there will be a new comparable property appraisers can use to justify the higher prices nice homes should bring.  THEN, we’ll begin to see the ‘Jumbo’ home sales moving toward their earlier values.  I love problem solving!

If you have been waiting to buy a home in Hollister review the following sales activity and then go buy your Hollister home.

The Average Sales Price (ASP) increased 15.2% from May to June! Hollister’s ASP in June was $287,900 whereas a month earlier the average was $249,900.  Compared to June 2008 however, Hollister’s ASP was down 14.7% .

A valuable indicator: the “Closed Sales to New Listings ratio” (CS:NL) is actually in conflict with the jump in ASP.   June’s CS:NL ratio dropped to 56.9% from May’s 89.6%.  We saw the same drop in Gilroy for June however, their ASP also dropped.   The harbinger of things to come, may lie in the nice increase of Hollister’s CS:NL over 6/08’s ratio of 40.2%.  Just wait and see.  As our CS:NL ratio increases so will our ASP.

Nearby Morgan Hill’s homes experienced an increase in both the CS:NL ratio and ASP.

My strong advice: if you plan to buy a home this year do it now.  We see nothing that suggest prices will drop or even level off in the foreseeable future.  Likewise I think interest rates for home loans are about as low as they are going to get.

For your own study of the actual Multiple Listing Service figures go onto “Client Portfolio” on the navigation bar.  There you can see a great deal of real-time data.  Enjoy.

Here’s the good news Gilroyans: Our Closed Sales-to-New Listings-Ratio (CS:NL) nearly doubled that of the same time last year.  June’s CS:NL ratio was 87.3% vs. 47.6% in June last year.  The “bad” news is that June’s CS:NL ratio was down from May’s 93.5%.

As you would expect, Gilroy’s Average Sales Price (ASP) of $395,900 dropped 3.8% in June from the month prior ($411,500).  Likewise, the ASP was down 32.5% from 6/08’s $586,800.

While  interest rates and prices are still down buyers who want the American Dream, Gilroy-style, should jump on the shrinking inventory of homes.  Gilroy’s home prices will go up.

Down the road in Hollister the CS:NL ratio also dropped from May to June but the ASP went UP 15.2% in that same month!   Compared to ‘08 Hollister is following Morgan Hill and Gilroy’s trend of an increasing CS:NL ratio.

For your own study of the actual Multiple Listing Service figures go onto “Client Portfolio” on the navigation bar.  There you can see a great deal of real-time data.  Enjoy.

The Morgan Hill housing market is beginning to show some promising signs: The Closed Sales-to-New Listings-Ratio (CS:NL) rose nicely to 89.2% in June from 51.5% in May.  June’s ratio nearly doubled 6/08’s of 47.2%.  As you would expect Morgan Hill’s Average Sales Price (ASP) also rose in June, up 10.2% from May. However, the ASP of $614,500 is down 31.5% from last year’s average of $898,200 in June.

The best hint of what’s to come is the nice increases in CS:NL.  As that indicator continues to increase the ASP is bound to go up.

Next door: Gilroy’s activity seems to be headed in the right direction.  While June’s CS:NL ratio dropped slightly from May to June, June’s ratio nearly doubled over last year’s figures.  The Average Gilroy Sales Price was lower in June than May by 3.8% and down 32.5% from a year ago.  Stay tuned however.

As I update these ‘09 figures I predict an increase in ASP in both Morgan Hill and Gilroy.

For your own study of the actual Multiple Listing Service figures go onto “Client Portfolio” on the navigation bar.  There you can see a great deal of real-time data.  Enjoy.

In these Dog Days of Summer it seems like every other home I show in Gilroy lately has a pet door in the garage door entry to the home.  There is nothing more exciting than to have “Spike” come blasting through the door to check out who is in his home.

Gilroy, as well as virtually every other city, has a building code requiring that homes be built with a firewall between the attached garage and the home.  Many house fires begin in the garage so the firewall is engineered to impede a fire which starts in the garage from spreading to the home.  Most jurisdictions require the firewall to provide such a delay for up to two hours.

While making “Spike’s” life a little more convenient the homeowner who puts a pet door in the the door leading into the home from the garage may have problems collecting from their homeowners insurance where a fire began in the garage.

I find it interesting that many insurance agents say homeowners with such pet doors will still be covered yet home inspectors seem compelled to address this issue in their written reports.

Occasionally, a homeowner will cut the firewall for attic access or to install a drop down ladder.  They may face the same dilemma with their insurance company.

Building Code also requires that your garage-to-home door have a functioning, self-closing, hinge.  For obvious reasons that door needs to close so that the firewall retards the spread of a garage fire.  For reasons beyond me some homeowners disengage such a hinge.  Again, such a move may prove costly later.

So, why not check with your homeowner insurance agent and see what their position is on the doggie door dilemma.  We can check with the City’s code enforcement folks.  Sorry “Spike”.  Of course the standing rule remains: “caveat emptor”.

I listened to home inspector today as he  inspected a house   I sold in San Jose.  He was talking about the importance of smoke alarms and how most homes only have an “ionization” or a “photoelectric” type detector   but not both.  Up to that comment I had smugly checked off that my home had a smoke alarm and we were set. I realized, however, that I didn’t even know which type I had.  Then the inspector referred to some studies that suggest people can sleep right through the constant    pitch of a smoke alarms going off – almost like getting  used to “white noise” or constant background sounds.

Enter “alarm and voice” devises and variable pitch alarms.  The newest alarms  even talk to you: “Warning, Warning, Fire, Fire“.  Then they put out a variable pitch alarm.  When the inspector mentioned “the other type of alarm: “the CO2 detector” I knew I needed to get updated.  “You know that Carbon Monoxide is called the ‘Silent Killer’, right?.  Well there is an alarm for that too”, he offered.  While I vaguely remember thinking about that in the past I did not install a CO detector in my home.

I found  “National Fire Protection Association”  website to be very helpful.  I quickly realized that my home was not adequately equipped with the most up-to-date smoke detectors nor do I have enough detectors in my two story home.   I’m headed to Lowe’s for all three types of alarms.

How about your home?  I recommend that you go to NFPA’s website

A Monterey homeowner asked a question    which many sellers wonder about: “Should I replace our dated and worn carpeting  with l new flooring on the home I’m selling?”  The seller has been told “Yes” and “No.  Buyers will want to put in their own color and texture of flooring“.

This is topic which has no perfect answer. I find most buyers really want a “turn-key” home – one where they can simply move into it and live. Those same buyers often say, “we’ll change this, and that…” but, often take a long time getting around to it if they don’t make those changes soon after the close of escrow.

A  few enterprising buyers will, in fact, shop for a ‘fixer upper’.  Some have family and or friends in “the trades” and fully intend to do a complete face lift to the home they buy.  If the rest of the home is dated and in need of repairs  the seller will have spent money on carpeting that will likely be removed.

If the home is in otherwise good condition I would go with the odds and put down a complementary-color carpet. It does make a lot of difference in the ‘feel’ and ’senses’ of that brief tour the prospective buyer will take of the  home.  We only have one chance for a first impression.  The value of getting the home sold in a timely fashion vs. staying on the market a long time suggests that the cost of carpeting is really a cost of selling.

Regarding the cost – We have a nice relationship with a carpet store where they will allow homeowners to “bill escrow” with no costs or interest for up to a year.  This kind of relationship can make the decision a whole lot easier, right?

As I hear the familiar sounds of the pickers in my apricot orchard I’m reminded that it is that time of the year for the Gilroy Garlic Festival.

31 years ago Dr. Rudy Melone decided that Gilroyans shouldn’t be embarrassed or apologetic about our prolific crop of garlic but be proud of it.  Dr. Melone also thought that the “Stinky Rose” could be a fund raising source and activity for his beloved community.  So he cornered the local garlic farmers and convinced them to hold such an  event and earn some funds for the local Rotary club.  A media luncheon was held and they were also convinced.  Reluctant city leaders were pulled into the fray and 7 months later, in 1979, the first G arlic Festival arrived.

That 1st festival netted $19,000.  In the 30 years since then, more than $8 million has been given back to the community!

But what I really like is the cheerful community involvement where hundreds of charity and non-profit groups work side by side as volunteers and vendors earning funds for their group.  The Gilroy Gators Swim Teams earns over $6,000 during the 3 day event.  Hope Rehabilitation earns more than $3,000.  Even the $400 earned by Sunset 4-H club is much more than they could earn selling cookies in front of the market.  My son-in-law is a Scout Master of a local Boy Scout troop.  They will earn all of their entire year’s operating funds from selling lemon aid at the Festival.

When we say it is “tons of fun” for the visitors we mean that, literally: approximately 11 tons of beef, 5 tons of pasta, 5 tons of calamari, 3 tons of scampi and 3 tons of fresh Christopher Ranch garlic is expected to be consumed by the 100,000 patrons.  Additionally, there are live bands, events for the kids, and all of the normal fun activities you would expect as such a world class event.

Why not plan on coming out for good food, lots of fun and helping so many good organizations.  This year’s Festival will be held on Friday – Sunday, 7/24 -25-26.  Gates open at 10:00 AM.  For more information go to:  gilroygarlicfestival.com